Text: Olivia Havinen

More than a year after the start of the war in Gaza, the ceasefire negotiations seem no closer to their goal than before. At the moment of writing the article, a regional escalation of the conflict seems more likely in the wake of Israel’s attack on Lebanon than a resolution to the crisis and the end for the suffering of civilians. 

The UN General Assembly voted for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire last December and again to end the occupation of Palestine this September. With many members of the international community calling for an immediate ceasefire, why have the talks failed time after time?

USA

Israel’s most significant supporter and arms provider, the United States, has failed to pressure the Benjamin Netanyahu government into a ceasefire, many argue. Perhaps the most concentrated push for a ceasefire by the US government was made on 31st of May when Joe Biden laid down a ceasefire proposal that formed the basis for negotiations for months to come. 

The “road map” included three phases. The first phase would last for six weeks during which the fighting would stop, Israeli forces would withdraw from the most densely populated areas of Gaza, and there would be an exchange of a number Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages. Humanitarian aid would also be let in at this point. The second phase would mean the release of all remaining hostages and Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza. The third phase would start the reconstruction efforts in Gaza. (AP, 1.6.24)

Publicly, American officials have remained positive saying that the ceasefire and hostage-release deal is within reach for a long time. However, on 19th of September Washington Street Journal reported that senior US officials were, for the first time, privately admitting that the deal might not happen before the end of Biden’s term in January.

According to Reuters (3.10.24), an official assessed that nothing will happen before the presidential election in November, because until then, no one is able to pressure Netanyahu due to the domestic political situation created by elections. 

Israel

What does Israel want? The response varies depending whether it’s asked from the government or from the citizens. From the beginning, Netanyahu has insisted that the war will continue until all of Israel’s objectives for the war are reached. These goals include destroying Hamas, returning all hostages and neutralising a future security threat to Israel from Gaza.

Interestingly, in a survey conducted by the The Israel Democracy Institute in July, 29.5 % of Israelis would have agreed to a deal to release some of the hostages in exchange for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, and 56% said that they would have agreed to a deal to release all hostages and end the war in Gaza with a permanent ceasefire.  

However, mid August the New York Times reported that Netanyahu had added new conditions to the negotiations according to Israeli government documents. Netanyahu has denied the claims. The new conditions demanded that Israeli forces maintain the control of the border between southern Gaza and Egypt, also known as the ‘Philadelphi corridor’. 

One turning point took place in early September when Israeli Defence Forces recovered the bodies of six hostages that were murdered by Hamas right before the fighters reached them. Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Hamas and was quoted saying ”Whoever murders hostages – does not want a deal,” by Reuters (1.9.24).

The right-wing members of Netanyahu’s government have threatened to break down the coalition should he end the war. This was highlighted by the comments made by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir who declared that there’s no need to speak with Hamas except with firearms, and that “we are using our power in the government to prevent a reckless deal”, on September 2nd, following the discovery of dead hostages (The Times of Israel). 

While Netanyahu is facing pressure from within his government, he is also facing increasing opposition from Israelis and especially by the hostages’ family members who are blaming Netanyahu for sacrificing Israeli citizens to stay in power (CNN, 4.9.24). The public took to the streets after the death of hostages proved to them how going after Hamas is hindering the return of the hostages. Until this event, Netanyahu was able to claim that the return of hostages and going after Hamas could be pursued simultaneously making the ceasefire deal seem less urgent. 

Hamas

Analysts told CNN (4.9.24) that Hamas might no longer consider the hostages as a leverage over Israel because they have witnessed that Netanjahu’s administration is not interested in a hostage deal.

The murder of Hamas political leader Ismail Hanyie in Tehran did hinder the mediation as well. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who has acted as a mediator, asked on X how the negotiations can succeed if one party is assassinating the negotiator sitting on the other side of the table (Al Jazeera, 2.8.24). 

One deadlock in the negotiations has been Hamas’ refusal to give up governing the Gaza strip, something that is essential for Israel. Nonetheless, the focus has now turned to de-escalating the conflict in the region instead of a ceasefire deal.

Israel’s ambassador to the European Union told Politico (7.10.24) that the war in Gaza should be wrapped up during the coming year and new authority to be put in place there as soon as Israel reaches its final goals. There was no mention of a ceasefire. Only an end to the war on Israeli terms was discussed. 

Lasting peace and a two state solution is understandingly difficult to attain. However, even a permanent ceasefire to ease the condition of millions of civilians has fallen through. This can be blamed for a lack of motivation to reach a deal as well as the failure of the international community to pressure the parties to one.